Friday, June 6, 2014

The Projector: Tom vs. Teens Edition UPDATE

Sunday UPDATE: Believe the hype. Banking 4X its budget in its first three days, The Fault in Our Stars struck counterprogramming gold at the box office, trashing Tom Cruise's Edge of Tomorrow in the process. A blitzkrieg of effects-heavy actioners that began some eight weeks ago killed Edge's chances of success — positive reviews pushed aside as auds saw it as more of the overblown-summer same. Next weekend is guaranteed to be huge with a pair of sequels – 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2 – battling for the title, expect each to debut well north of $50M.

1. The Fault in Our Stars $48.2M
2. Maleficent $33.5M
3. Edge of Tomorrow $29.1M
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past $14.7M
5. A Million Ways to Die in the West $7.2M

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I detest weekends like this. No one – I repeat, no one – who attempts to prognosticate box office results has a true handle on the next three days. We have not one, but two movies which are wild – nay, wilderness – cards. The first, The Fault in Our Stars, is the cinematic adaptation of a crazy-big book with the YA XX set, one of the most fervent – and finicky – demos in all of filmdom. Said demo pushes The Hunger Games franchise to $100M+ openings and sees that wannabes – Beautiful Creatures, The Host, The Mortal Instruments, etc. – die hideously-grotesque deaths. Now if you believe the hype, the glorified Lifetime flick could push well past the $40M mark – I'll take the slightly over. More questions surround our other shiny new thing, Tom Cruise's CGI-spectacle Edge of Tomorrow, the Groundhog Day meets War of the Worlds mashup enters a marketplace which has been bombarded by July-sized tentpoles since Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened some two months back. Have auds been bludgeoned to death by all things bombastically big with the summer movie season only beginning? If so, it's Cruise who'll take the hit in Sunday’s headlines. But know this: should Edge of Tomorrow underperform, it won't be a referendum on the 51-year-old, it's more about America being burned out on all things overblown.
  1. The Fault in Our Stars $41M (↑) - Don't dare tweeting me "told you so" if it pushes past $45M+.
  2. Edge of Tomorrow $38M (↑) - Warner Bros. would love World War Z-type debut ($66M) but while I'm still bullish compared to most, there's that whole CGI-oversaturation issue we just discussed.
  3. Maleficent $33.5M - Possesses family market until next weekend's guaranteed-to-be-gargantuan How to Train Your Dragon 2.
  4. X-Men: Days of Future Past $15.5M - Continued trend of sky-falling sophomore drops.
  5. A Million Ways to Die in the West $7.5M - Seth MacFarlane's on-cam career effectively killed after lifeless debut.
Follow @FinalCutonFilm for the latest BO results throughout the weekend.