Friday, December 20, 2013

The Projector: Sweet Lincoln's Mullet Edition UPDATE


Monday UPDATE UPDATE: Quality work from the studios as the weekend actuals were essentially identical to their estimates with only Frozen up a tick.

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $31.5M
2. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues $26.8M ($40M 5-day)
3. Frozen $19.6M
4. American Hustle $19.1M
5. Saving Mr. Banks $9.3M

Sunday UPDATE: In an urgent and horrifying news story, Anchorman 2 came up well short of projections in its debut weekend, banking some $10M less in its 5-day frame than anyone – including Paramount, regardless of spin – expected. With the aforementioned promotional blitzkrieg, this was clearly not an issue of awareness but rather all-inclusive interest — males made up a massive 62% of its audience (that number should be closer to 55% at worst). That said, Ron Burgundy and the boys will benefit – as will the entire box office – from the money-raking holiday fortnight with folks looking for something to do with their not-stuck-at-work time. The weekend's other eyebrow-raiser? Saving Mr. Banks struggling, the victim of a packed marketplace which only gets more slammed Christmas Day with the arrival of The Wolf of Wall Street and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $31.5M
2. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues $26.8M ($40M 5-day)
3. Frozen $19.2M
4. American Hustle $19.1M
5. Saving Mr. Banks $9.3M

Break out the Sex Panther, Ron Burgundy is back. What could be the most overhyped movie ever, Anchorman 2 hits theaters after an ungodly promotional barrage that dates back to March, 2012 with Will Farrell's pronouncement of a sequel to the 2004 cult classic on the Conan show. In the 21 months since, Farrell has done car commercials, European awards shows, local TV newscasts, underwear ads — there's been no escaping the ringleader of the Channel 4 news team. And that superhuman promo push by Farrell should pay off this weekend with a debut that could hit the $40M plateau.

1. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues $37.5M ($50.5M 5-day) (↔) – Given the level of awareness, anything less than $30M will be a massive disappointment.
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $33M – While Bilbo will take the typical 50%+ second-stanza tumble, expect huge weekday numbers next week with the start of school vacay.
3. American Hustle $18.5M (↑) – Oscar buzz + star-studded cast = strong open.
4. Frozen $16M – Closing in on $200M stateside and – like The Hobbit – will continue to crush cash throughout the holidays.
5. Saving Mr. Banks $14M (↔) – Tom Hanks' 2013 rebirth rolls on with the exquisite crowd-pleaser.
6. Walking with Dinosaurs $10.25M (↓) – Half-decent kidfest could find itself extinct on the quick.