1. Oz the Great and Powerful - $80.3M
2. Jack the Giant Slayer - $10M
3. Identity Thief - $6.3M
4. Dead Man Down - $5.3M
5. Snitch - $5M
December 14th. Call it three months. That's how long its been since Hollywood's last legit tentpole flick dropped, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. What's a tentpole? Those mega-budgeted blockbusters which appeal to all four quadrants - demographics - of the moviegoing audience. Make no mistake about it, the circus sets down this weekend with Oz the Great and Powerful, Disney's prequel to the 1939 Toto-toting classic. Thanks to that pent-up demand for something big, I'm extra bullish on Oz's box office prospects, even if it's largely a fail.
- Oz the Great and Powerful $95M - This may come as somewhat shocking: The Mouse House knows how to market its product. Buzz has been building for months on the back of a massive marketing campaign, including that extravagant Super Bowl promotion – awareness isn't a question. Three years ago, in the exact same spot on the calendar, Alice in Wonderland - another Disney product - opened with a colossal $116M. I'm expecting a similar - if somewhat dampened - output from Oz. Wouldn't shock me to see it pop past $100M, anything below $80M will be hugely disappointing.
- Jack the Giant Slayer $12.5M - Heads are rolling in Burbank as Warner Bros. $200M bomb gets wiped off the map by the wizard a week after its lower-than-John Carter opening. Worst-timed release since The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian.
- Identity Thief $6.5M - $100M and counting for the crushed-expectations comedy.
- Dead Man Down $6M - Who? What? Why?
- Snitch $5M - Asks The Rock: How long 'til G.I. Joe 2 opens?