Friday, October 12, 2012

The Projector: Sinister Surprise Edition UPDATE

Monday UPDATE: As was surmised here on Friday, the BO race was going to be razor tight and with just $5M separating first and fourth place, truer words have never been blogged. Taken 2 took a 55% drop but held on to the top spot with Argo right behind, depositing a robust $20M for Warner Bros. Ben Affleck's Oscar contender garnered an rare A+ Cinemascore from audiences, which bodes rather well for its long term prospects. Sinister outperformed - as predicted - but the scarefest's C+ Cinemascore portends a precipitous drop this coming weekend. The addition of Paranormal Activity 4 to the marketplace further affirms that fact.

Difference between actual totals and my projections in parenthesis.
  1. Taken 2 $22.5M (+1.5M)
  2. Argo $20M (+1M)
  3. Sinister $18.25M (-1.75M)
  4. Hotel Transylvania $17.3M (+.3M)
  5. Here Comes the Boom $12M (+2M)

So what if Halloween is still three weeks off, Hollywood is quite adept marketing the "holiday" weeks out. Hotel Transylvania continues to rake in the cash and the fourth installment of the Paranormal Activity franchise will undoubtedly kill it next weekend, but this weekend, we are set to have a shock to the box office with Sinister. While the majority of BO analysts are drawing down expectations for the Ethan Hawke-headlined fright fest, I'm quite bullish, suggesting an opening that may just sneak off with the title come Monday.
  1. Taken 2 $21M - Audiences couldn't resist the urge to laugh along with watch Liam Neeson sleepwalk his way to a $10M paycheck in one of the most riotous films of 2012. I fear a third Taken is inevitable; betting Neeson saves an airliner by landing the thing on an aircraft carrier.
  2. Sinister $20M - Its studio, Summit, has done a solid job with the film's social media campaign and advance buzz is surprisingly strong. Venturing it dents PA4's take more than Paramount anticipates.
  3. Argo $19M - Will the odd title and historical aspect put off audiences? Is Ben Affleck still a big draw at the box office? While The Town appears to have answered the latter part of that, not entirely sold Affleck's in-front-of-the-cam career is as burgeoning as his behind-the-cam one. That said, Argo is brilliant, a lock for multiple noms come Oscar time: Best Picture, Best Director and Best Supporting Actor are in the bag. It's tied with The Master as my favorite film(s) of 2012.
  4. Hotel Transylvania $17M - $80M+ and counting for the Adam Sandler-voiced animated smash.
  5. Here Comes the Boom $10M - Looks like a lock for a load of Razzie nominations. Could open much lower than my number.