Friday, July 20, 2012

The Weekend Projector: Batman Eclipse Edition UPDATE

Monday UPDATE: After the inhumane actions of a soulless lunatic Friday morning, the results of this weekend at the box office seem nothing short of trivial. There's little doubt the tragedy played a role in the final numbers, as I received a number of tweets from people saying they were going to sit opening weekend out. I don't suspect that it will quash The Dark Knight Rises long-term prospects as we should see strong holds for the first few weekends - there's nothing on the release schedule that will put a dent into the Batman.

  1. The Dark Knight Rises ($162M)
  2. Ice Age: Continental Drift ($20M)
  3. The Amazing Spider-Man ($11M)
  4. Ted ($10M) 

With the horrific events of this morning, the game has changed this weekend at the box office in a shockingly unforeseen way. While demand for The Dark Knight Rises is still at levels not seen in years, the "on the fence" group of moviegoers that's key to a possible record-setting haul may lean toward waiting a bit to see it rather than running out opening weekend. That could be the difference in whether TDKR tops The Avengers or comes up just short.
  1. The Dark Knight Rises ($200M) - While I initially had Christopher Nolan's epic finale taking the all-time top spot with $210M, the tragedy in Colorado has me more cautious - enough so to downgrade The Dark Knight Rises to finish just a tad shy of the record. While the publicity is certainly not what Warner Bros. wanted, it could have the opposite effect and increase the desire to see it first. Either way, there's no question it will dominate the box office for the next month, right into fall. Here's my A- review.
  2. Ice Age: Continental Drift ($25M) - Owns the family market for another weekend but doesn't have near the staying power of a Madagascar 3.
  3. Ted ($15M) - Quickly closing in on $200M. Expect a sequel announcement in the very near future from the grinning-ear-to-ear Universal.
  4. The Amazing Spider-Man ($14M) - Finally gets kicked to the curb by Batman. The weakest of the superhero movies this summer both in content and box office.