Friday, February 10, 2012

The Weekend Projector *UPDATE*

SATURDAY AM: It's setting up to be even bigger than the "near-record" weekend predicted here - it's beyond massive for mid-February. Reports have 'Safe House' and 'The Vow' both around $38M for the weekend. 'Phantom Menace 3D' hitting exactly as forecast here $22M. 'Journey 2' outperforming as well at $21M. Called 'Chronicle' correctly at $11M. Apparently the "something for everyone" slate was the magic ticket with folks in serious "pent-up" mode. Toss in all the Oscar movies doing solid numbers and this should shatter all February records.

Glancing at this weekend's slate of new releases, it looks more like mid-May rather than mid-February. With the marketplace now in bullish mode and sans football - expect a near-record take. All four quadrants are covered this weekend: a romantic fluff flick, a mindless 3D movie for the kids, a blatant 3D cash grab and lest we forget, one of the screen's biggest superstars with a wannabe alongside.

  1. Safe House ($24M) - Denzel Washington = money in the bank. Just one of his last nine movies has grossed less than $20M in its opening frame and no chance this is the second. Ryan Reynolds could use some of that mojo - his "headline act" status needs a cash infusion.
  2. Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace 3D ($22M) - This is the new "I'm Feeling Lucky" landing spot when "cash grab" is Googled.
  3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($18M) - Tweens that have been on the sidelines are set to spend their allowances on this 3D banality.
  4. The Vow ($17M) - Seeing as I have repeatedly made the mistake of thinking it was Channing Tatum that got all lovey-dovey with Rachel McAdams in 'The Notebook' - it's quite splendid to have a legit reason for making that unforgivable error.
  5. Chronicle ($11M) - Didn't quite hit the sum I pegged it for last week but this surprisingly effective sci-fi flick still lit up the box office - recouping its budget and then some after its first three days.
Limited release: